Peak stability

THE signs are coming but the verdict is still awaited. Early indications suggest the much-vaunted economic stabilisation that we have seen since July 2023 is now hitting its peak, and from here on the government will struggle to keep things under control. The key is in the external sector, which measures the inflows and outflows of foreign exchange, primarily dollars. In the period from July to January, exports grew by just over $1 billion, but imports grew by more than $3bn. That fact alone tells you that history could be getting ready to repeat itself once more. But it goes further than just the trade data. Government supporters will argue that remittances have risen by $5bn in the same period, and therefore the current account still managed a surplus of $682m in this period, despite the deterioration in the trade account.