SBP surprises with hold on key policy rate at 12pc

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced on Monday that it has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12 per cent, assessing the current real interest rate to be adequately positive on the forward-looking basis to sustain the ongoing macroeconomic stability. The central bank’s policy rate, after being slashed by 1,000bps from 22pc since June 2024 in six intervals, now stands at 12pc. February inflation stood at a near-decade low of 1.5pc, largely due to a high base a year ago. A Reuters survey of 14 analysts suggests that the central bank may further reduce rates, with a median forecast for a cut of 50 bps. Of the 10 analysts expecting a rate cut, three estimated its size at 100 bps, one at 75 bps, and six at 50 bps. The rest saw no change.