Pakistan central bank likely to hold rate at 11% as IMF flags inflation risks

Pakistan’s central bank is expected to retain interest rates at 11% on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the IMF warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”. All 12 analysts surveyed expect no cut in the policy meeting on Monday. A majority of them see inflation hovering at 6%–8% in the coming months before rising again toward the end of fiscal 2026 as base effects fade and food and transport prices stay volatile after flood-related supply disruptions. Most respondents now believe the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will not begin easing until the closing months of FY26, which ends in June 2026, with some analysts pushing forecasts for the first cut into fiscal year 2027, beginning July 2026.