Policy rate: MPC meets today amid geopolitical uncertainty

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the third of this calendar year, will meet today (Monday) to discuss the country’s economic issues and decide on the policy rate. At its previous meeting, held on March 09, 2026, the MPC, in line with market expectations, kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 10.5%. Market experts showed mixed expectations regarding the central bank decision as the geopolitical situation remains tense. Arif Habib Limited (AHL) anticipates that the SBP is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged. “The world is negotiating peace amid uncertainty; therefore, at a time like this, we believe policy must continue to lean toward discipline over impulse.” On the other hand, Topline Securities, another brokerage house, expects interest rates to increase by 50bps “to absorb the impact of rising oil prices, and its indirect/lagged impact on other commodities and to contain nonessential imports”.